Truckload transportation is typically volatile, and severe winter weather has long been a catalyst for temporary disruptions, but recent data suggests that this year’s impacts are amplified by underlying market conditions. The National Truckload Index (NTI) has hit $2.71/mile, inclusive of fuel, revealing notable turbulence in spot rates during January, echoing patterns from previous years but with a distinct intensity.

The chart below displays the NTI, which tracks the national average truckload spot rate in USD per mile, in a stacked comparison of 2023, 2024, and 2025, highlighting how January’s volatility stands out against the broader seasonal trends. While past winters have caused brief spikes by interrupting shipment schedules and sidelining capacity due to hazardous road conditions, the current market dynamics indicate a more pronounced effect.

The price movement brokers and carriers are experiencing today in the spot market is different from previous years, because this year the weather disruptions’ effects are being reinforced by a much higher level of tender rejections, one that has now exceeded the holiday peak at 13.42%. For reference, analysts at SONAR and FreightWaves typically consider tender rejection levels of 7-8% to be inflationary for spot rates; enterprise shippers typically want their tender compliance to exceed 95%. So a level of 13% indicates serious problems with capacity and/or contract pricing, leading carriers to fall off shipper routing guides.

Read more: FreightWaves